Copeland by-election - a test for Labour

Submitted by cathy n on 24 December, 2016 - 9:23 Author: Gerry Bates

Many Corbyn supporters may have raised a cheer in hearing that Jamie Reed - the Blairite MP, famous for resigning from the shadow cabinet 60 seconds into Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership acceptance speech in 2015 - is to stand down as an MP.

He and MPs like him show hostility to the Party membership and democracy, refuse to accept or support the new direction of the party and instead are using the Parliamentary Labour Party as a forum to undermine Corbyn. 

So one less Blairite wrecker in the PLP is to be welcomed right?

But by-elections are not predictable, Labour’s public opinion rating (although caused by the wrecking antics of the likes of Reed) are very poor. If the last 12 months have shown anything it’s that people are angry with the status quo, and might be whipped up to deliver Corbyn a very bad start to 2017 – a poor result in this by-election.

Copeland in Cumbria is an isolated part of the west of England, famous only for Sellafield nuclear power plant (employing perhaps 10,000 workers). That’s where Reed will take up his new job. This seat has seen a reduction in the Labour vote from over 50% when Reed first became the MP in 2005 (and 60% back in 1997) to just 42% at the last General Election - with the Tories on 36% - 2500 behind. 

No doubt Reed hasn’t helped Labour here, but significantly UKIPs vote of 13% (6,000 votes in 2015) took votes from Labour, and it’s estimated that 60% in this constituency voted for Leave in EU referendum. The Tories haven’t held this seat since 1931, so a win for them would be a massive boost and a big defeat for Labour and Corbyn.

So far both national bookmakers and local press are predicting a Tory victory, in the by-election, likely to be held in late March. Turning this round and winning for Labour could be an important start to reversing the damage done by the 2016 coup attempt.

Corbyn supporters are meeting over the Christmas break to discuss campaigning and start discussing candidates though since Parliament is in recess and the formal resignation won’t happen until January, Labour won’t start the process of selection until next year.

An important focus for Labour should be the NHS; a campaign against threats to West Cumberland Hospital and removing maternity services, has been organising protests this week. Labour will need to draw on support for Corbyn in Cumbria; the new Momentum group in West Cumbria launched last month, as well as neighbouring Momentum groups across Cumbria and across the north. This could see a grassroots campaign that no other party could match. 

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