Liam Fox, the international trade secretary in charge of negotiating with the WTO, has said it is a 60% probability there the UK will leave the EU without a deal.
According to the Sunday Times (4 August) Fox put the chances of a no deal departure at “60-40”, squarely blaming the “intransigence” of the European Commission.
In response to increasing belligerence from hard-line Tory Brexiters on the one hand, and a Treasury report which said a “no deal Brexit” would cost the UK an extra £80 billion in borrowing, Theresa May said “no-deal” would not be the end of the world.
The need for Labour to debate and adopt a firm stand against Brexit, has been heightened by this Tory division and increasingly political paralysis on the issue.
Over the next couple of weeks local Labour Parties will be voting on their motions to the Labour Party conference on 23-26 September in Liverpool.
Under rules made in the Blair years, they can submit motions only in a short time-slot between early August and 13 September, and the motions have to refer to “contemporary” events (this year, after 9 August).
Still, ferment on the Brexit issue is running high enough that it looks likely to push its way onto the conference agenda. At the 2017 conference, motions on Brexit and on free movement were submitted, but failed to reach conference floor because they didn't get enough votes to prioritise the issue.
Solidarity and Workers' Liberty campaigned for the conference to have a debate, but large parts of the left campaigned against, arguing that we should support the Labour Party leadership by leaving it with a free hand.
Since then there has been a significant change of mood, with many local Labour parties submitting motions on this issue. A turn in mood — most significantly towards support for a second referendum — will be further strengthened if Momentum agrees to back it. A petition from Momentum members has called for the organisation to consult members on the issue – the group’s National Coordinating Group is due to consider whether to back that consultation.
At this year's Labour conference, three main draft motions are making the rounds.
A draft from the Clarion magazine calls for Labour to oppose Brexit on positive grounds of support for free movement and internationalism.
It calls for “defending existing workers’ rights, freedom of movement, environmental protections... international alliances to fight for levelling-up of living standards, rights and services; and democratisation of European institutions...” and “a public vote on Brexit, with an option to remain”.
A draft from Another Europe Is Possible is likely to be combined with the Clarion text in the same “composite” at conference. It notes that “2016 Conference committed to a public vote on the Exit Deal so the people have the final decision on whether to accept the government's deal or to stay in the EU”.
It proposes: “Oppose any Brexit deal that does not satisfy Labour’s six tests; call for an immediate general election, making a manifesto commitment to call a public vote on the deal with an option to remain in the EU; if we cannot get an election, campaign for a public vote and call for an election following a government defeat in that vote”.
Likely to be counterposed to these is a status-quo text being promoted by the Campaign for Labour Party Democracy. Momentum has not circulated any draft motions.
The CLPD text wants Labour to “continue to support [the] six tests, the commitment to a customs union and seeking full access” to EU trade. It says “Labour should vote against any agreement the government reaches” which does not provide for free trade with the EU, but beyond that “Labour should not exclude in advance any means or tactics to prevent a [bad] Brexit outcome”.
It does not mention free movement, lowering of borders, or international labour-movement solidarity.
Labour Party leaders are now on the same wavelength, refusing to say that they back free movement or want to stop Brexit, but still being “open to the possibility of a popular vote being held on any deal, depending on political circumstances” (Keir Starmer, 23 August). The policy conference of Labour's biggest affiliated union, Unite, in early July, voted through a statement from the union executive with a similar line.
That is a mistake. Socialists in the party need to up our campaign to get Labour to firmly commit to a consistently internationalist policy.
